Any Oscar party worth its salt has everyone fill out an Oscar ballot. The night’s winner usually scores a door prize of sorts, sometimes fancy, sometimes not.
The last two parties Paige and I went to, she won a SCENE IT DVD game and I took home a CD player/clock radio. Not too shabby for a couple of night’s worth of work, huh?

Filling out an Oscar ballot is a lot like filling out a political ballot. There are a couple of big races you already know plenty about and then there are all those obscure judges running and charter amendments and the like. For the Academy Awards, you have the same kind of division of contests – all the acting categories and maybe the screenplays along with Best Picture and Best Director are pretty well-known and then you’ve got all those head-scratching categories like best live action short, art direction, and foreign language film. With a whopping 24 Academy Awards given out, it’s easy to find yourself lost in a fog of incomprehension.

Since I’ve won my share of Oscar pools, I thought I’d quickly run through this year’s ballot and give you my impressions of the nominees with the best chances to win. I can’t guarantee you’ll win your pool, but I think I can help you avoid embarrassment. How’s that for encouragement.

Okay, the first thing is take care of the obvious wins first. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE is practically a lock for BEST PIC, BEST DIRECTOR, BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. Almost as sure a thing is BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY, BEST SCORE and probably BEST SONG too. (My only quibble with Song is that there are only three songs nominated and two are from SLUMDOG, so there’s a chance DOWN TO EARTH from WALL*E could slip in there but I doubt it.) So mark down SLUMDOG’S “JAI HO” for Best Song. Okay, so we’re already down 6 categories with a single film – only 18 to go.

And speaking of WALL*E, one more absolute lock – WALL*E for best ANIMATED film. And finally, the lock of locks – Heath Ledger for BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR.
I’ll go out on a pretty strong limb right now and say, you’ve got 8 winners so far, for sure.

Now let’s get the high profile ones out of the way. Best Actor? It’s basically a two-man race between Mickey “this is my one and only shot for an Oscar” Rourke and Sean “I’m up for an Oscar every time I act” Penn. Rourke’s Wrestler is a bigger-than-life, out-sized performance –Penn’s Milk is a less showy and more internalized performance. Rourke might be a slight favorite (everybody loves a great comeback story like Mickey’s, one that perfectly mirrors his character’s comeback) but I went with Penn for two reasons. One, there seems to be more Academy affection for MILK (8 noms) than there is for THE WRESTLER (two noms). And two, Penn’s just better in my eyes. But either one is a smart pick for your ballot.

Best Actress? Another two actor race, primarily. Streep and Winslet. I’m going with Winslet by a whisker since she’s never one, although nominated 5 or 6 times, and she’s got two award-winning year-end films, THE READER and REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. Streep’s arguments are just as strong – she has the key role in a film that garnered an amazing 4 (!) acting nominations and, although universally acknowleged as the best actress of her generation, hasn’t won an Oscar in something like 20 years. Again, as with the BEST ACTOR category, either vote is a smart one.

Best Supporting Actress? I’m going slightly against the grain on this one. Penelope Cruz is considered the frontrunner and Marisa Tomei is also a strong contender, but I’m going on a hunch that Viola Davis from Streep’s movie DOUBT just might surprise the world with a win. In a mere ten minutes, she stops the film in its tracks and more than holds her own against Streep’s ferocious nun. You wanna be safe? Then go with Cruz. But if you like to gamble, try out Davis.

One more big category – Best Original Screenplay. Another one of these damn toss-ups. It seems to be between WALL*E and MILK. I prefer WALL*E but I picked MILK because emotion usually trumps wit at the Oscars, and MILK’s definitely got the emotional thing going for it.

Okay, so that’s all the “fun” stuff – 12 categories down, 12 to go.

Actually, I love the BEST DOCUMENTARY category too, especially this year because one of my favorite films of the year should win. MAN ON WIRE, about a high-wire artist who walked between the Twin Towers when they were first built, is not only a brilliant movie, it’s actually favored to win. It’s also the best reviewed film of the year according to rottentomatoes.com but that’s no guarantee it WILL snag the Oscar. This is a category that’s notoriously riddled with bad judgment, so we’ll see. If you smell an upset, I’d go with TROUBLE THE WATER, about the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

The trouble with BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE film is that most of the films haven’t been released. Nonetheless, the Israeli WALTZ WITH BASHIR, which has opened, looks like a good bet since it’s won many earlier awards,as has THE CLASS, a French film opening in Seattle today that took top prize at last year’s Cannes Film Festival. I like both films, but think WALTZ has a little higher profile right now. The other three nominees, I haven’t a clue.

Okay, now here come a lot of technical awards. For BEST EDITING, I’d go with SLUMDOG again. There are a lot of great chase scenes early in the film and the constant intercutting between present and past seems seamless. Arguments could be made for THE DARK KNIGHT and BENJAMIN BUTTON, but in a close race, I’d go with the more popular film.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS? This is one of at least two technical categories I’m pretty sure BUTTON will win. Brad Pitt looks pretty convincing as a 70-year-old 7-year- old!

BEST SOUND EDITING and BEST SOUND MIXING. I couldn’t decide between THE DARK KNIGHT and WALL*E, so I went with the comic book movie over the animated film. I think the former is given slightly more credibility by the Academy than the latter, but I could be wrong. And who knows, if it’s a real SLUMDOG sweep, it could pick up these two too.

We’re three-fourths the way through. Only six more categories.

BEST COSTUME. It’s always a safe bet to go with the historical high-society pic, so I’m predicting THE DUCHESS. BUTTON can make a strong argument too, since it has to cover 70 year’s worth of fashion. Either vote is a smart one.

BEST ART DIRECTION – I usually love this category but I’m having a hard time with it this year. I could make an argument for just about every nominee, and since SLUMDOG isn’t up, I can’t fall back on my old standby. I guess I’ll go with BUTTON for the same reason I think it’s a contender for COSTUME. A higher degree of difficulty since it has to cover so many years. But REALLY, your guess is as good as mine on this one.

BEST MAKE UP. BENJAMIN BUTTON. For the same reason I gave it BEST VISUAL EFFECTS.

And now for the three nearly impossible categories – BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT, BEST ANIMATED SHORT, and BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT. Almost no one outside the Academy has seen all 15 nominees in these three categories. I’ve seen all five in the first two categories so I’ll start with those.

LIVE ACTION SHORT. Shorts are always so idiosyncratic that it’s hard to predict who among the Academy are going to bother to see them in the first place and then which short might catch their small-in-numbers fancy. For my money, ON THE LINE is the best of the lot and TOYLAND is the worst, but since the latter is about the Holocaust, I’m taking TOYLAND for the win.

ANIMATED SHORT – I’m not a huge fan of any of these. If the Academy likes slickly produced cartoons, PRESTO or OCTAPODI will win. The reflective, impressionistic crowd should go for LA MAISON EN PETITS CUBES, and fans of British wit will prefer THIS WAY UP. Me? I’ll go for the simple line drawings and the simple storytelling of LAVATORY-LOVESTORY, but not by much.

And finally, the most obscure category of them all – BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT. I haven’t seen a single nominee in this category (and either has anybody else as far as I can tell.) All I have to go on is the Academy’s one-line description of the shorts’ subject matter. With one about the Cambodian genocide, one about a preacher friend of MLK, and two set in India (one about a kid with a cleft palate and the other about fighting polio in India), I decided thusly. I eliminated the two India films, since I figured they’d split the vote, and opted for the MLK short, since I thought it might resonate better with voters, given Barack Obama’s election and all. So THE WITNESS gets my last and final vote. Pretty silly, huh. Well, what can I say? You never really wanted a combination CD player/clock radio anyway, did you?