KIRO Radio's Jason Rantz believes activists will us an Associated Press story about pedestrian deaths to push for more of what they want. (AP)

In an Associated Press story that I fear will be used by activists to continue to push protected bike lanes that few people use, slower driving speeds, and costly sidewalk widening, it is reported that Washington has seen a “surge” in pedestrians deaths in 2015. Luckily, there is no surge and the narrative being crafted is incredibly misleading.

Before I continue, I am forced to say that I’d like pedestrian deaths to be zero. That should go without saying, but in a hyper-partisan world, activists will gleefully use the deaths of pedestrians as props to use for their own ideological agendas. I have no doubt that I will be attacked by lonely bullies on Twitter as insensitive to the deaths we’re about to discuss. They do this because they prefer we don’t look at raw data with a critical eye; they don’t want me (or anyone) getting in their way of a utopian Seattle where only their needs are met. So: I don’t like the numbers we’re about to discuss. But they don’t represent a surge.

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Joan Lowy reports that, according to a report by the Governors Highway Safety Association, pedestrian deaths in Washington is up a staggering 28 percent!

The report (read it) compared the first six months of 2015 to 2014 and saw the alarming uptick. Only, that 28-percent increase represents a very small increase in deaths: nine. With a population in excess of 7 million, we saw 41 pedestrian deaths in the first six months of 2015 (compared to 32 in the first six months of 2014).

Now, we want that number to be zero though we know that is not an attainable goal. We should strive to do what we can to reasonably lower the number, 41 deaths in this big of a state does not represent an alarming surge.
To begin with, the data is incomplete. Remember, we’re looking at data from just six months. There’s no indication you’ll see a 28-percent increase when you look year-to-year. Over the course of the last five years, we’ve seen an average of 67 pedestrian deaths a year. And if we see another 41 deaths calculated in the remainder of 2015, that would put us up just four deaths more than the 2014 total. That’s not a surge.

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But when you say “surge” you’re able to scare people into accepting someone’s agenda (some of which I agree with; some of which I don’t). Blogger Charles Mudede is using the data to push for legal changes that would target drivers (at least, that’s the implication of his piece).

He writes:

Though cities are becoming more about people (increased density and all of that), their laws and regulations continue to be about cars. We are not making laws that aggressively protect walkers. Our laws still, for the most part, punish them.

He may be right (though he doesn’t explain what laws unfairly punish walkers). But let’s be clear: this data doesn’t make his case. Not even a little bit.

We don’t even know why the numbers are going up. There’s data that shows people are driving longer and more people are walking, but there’s no causal link. And when you take a deeper dive into the numbers (at least nationally), Lowy reports:

Nearly three-quarters of pedestrian deaths occur after dark, and a third of those killed had been drinking alcohol, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data. By comparison, about 15 percent of motorists involved in those crashes had a blood alcohol content at the legal limit or higher.

So, are more people walking around drunk, at night, putting themselves in dangerous positions (like, stumbling into a street)? We don’t know.

And before too many activists jump on the claim that Washington is unsafe for pedestrians and we need some sort of intervention on behalf of pedestrians against drivers, let’s look at what we do know. The Governors Highway Safety Association report indicates Washington has one of the lowest pedestrian fatality rate in the country (well below the national average).

This incomplete data doesn’t tell us much, but I fear that won’t stop activists from shaping it to push an ideologically-driven narrative. So let’s all be aware of what the data actually says so we can arm ourselves against the propaganda campaigns.