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Tom Tangney

An oddsmaker’s Oscars

I’ve always been fascinated about how odds are set for the Oscars. Gambling in the world of sports makes perfect sense to me, since so much of sports is quantifiable and hence, easy to set odds for. But how do you gauge the odds in an election, which is basically what the Academy Awards competition is, when you can’t poll the voters? It turns out it’s more art than science.

Greg Sindal, the senior oddsmaker for the online gambling site SPORTS INTERACTION, says there are two factors that play into a film’s Oscar odds. The first is just like the world of sports. You look at a film’s record. By the time the Oscars come around, there’s already a lengthy won-loss record. Dozens of critics’ boards have weighed in, all the Academy’s guild awards (like the screen actors, the directors, the producers, etc.) have been decided, and so have the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTA’s (the British Oscars). Couple that with the number of Oscar nominations each film has and you have a fighter’s chance to get it right.

The other factor Sindal says you must keep in mind is that ever elusive “buzz.” What is everyone talking about? What do people seem to be enthusiastic about, as opposed to being respectful toward? This hard-to-gauge momentum is often the key in deciding close Oscar races. The year THE AVIATOR led the field with the most pre-Oscar wins and the most Oscar nominations, for instance, the late-on-the-scene MILLION-DOLLAR BABY had all the last-minute buzz, so much so that most of us correctly predicted the Eastwood film’s Best Picture Oscar. CRASH did the same number on BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, after the Ang Lee film had won almost every pre-Oscar challenge. (CRASH’s SAG Award was the only tip-off that an upset was afoot.)

Interestingly, Sindal says this year’s early favorite SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE actually has BOTH factors going for it. It not only has won practically everything in its wake, but it’s also the film everyone seems to want to talk about. Its word of mouth has been tremendous. As more and more people see it, it just keeps getting more and more popular. Sindal asks, rhetorically, when was the last time someone cornered you to rave about FROST/NIXON? How about BENJAMIN BUTTON?

By the way, as a professional oddsmaker, Sindal roots for upsets. Since everyone seems to like voting for the favorite at crunchtime, his employer makes more money when the favorites don’t all win. So, although Sindal predicts a SLUMDOG landslide for Best Picture, he wouldn’t mind being wrong – that would be a mistake he could “take to the bank.”

Below are Greg Sindal’s betting odds for the Oscars’ top categories. By the way, I’m including some of his goofball novelty bets. When I asked him how he could possibly set odds for something as off the wall as whether Hugh Jackman and Russell Crowe would get in a fight at the Oscars, he said he doesn’t like to admit this but he usually just pulls it out of the air! Now that’s why Sindal is a pro,and we’re all just Oscar pool chumps. Break a leg come Oscar night, Greg!

PICTURE:

5. THE READER 20-1
4. FROST/NIXON 20-1
3. MILK 8-1
2. BENJAMIN BUTTON 3.75-1
1. SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE 1-5

DIRECTOR:

5. Stephen Daldry (The Reader) 16-1
4. Gus Van Sant (Milk) 10-1
3. Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon) 9-1
2. David Fincher (Button) 4-1
1. Danny Boyle (Slumdog) 1-3

ACTOR:

5. Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) 20-1
4. Brad Pitt (Button) 14-1
3. Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) 7-1
2. Sean Penn (Milk) 6-5
1. Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) 3-4

ACTRESS:

5. Melissa Leo (Frozen River) 16-1
4. Angelina Jolie (Changeling) 14-1
3. Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) 3-1
2. Meryl Streep (Doubt) 5-2
1. Kate Winslett (The Reader) 5-6

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

5. Amy Adams (Doubt) 10-1
4. Taraji P. Henson (Button) 8-1
3. Viola Davis (Doubt) 7-2
2. Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler) 7-2
1. Penelope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona) 4-5

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Originally, Heath Ledger(The Dark Knight) was a prohibitive favorite at 1-25, with his closest competition coming from Josh Brolin (Milk) at 10-1. Ledger is now so heavy a favorite, Sports Interaction has taken this category off the board!

SOME NOVELTY OSCAR BETS:

Best Actress cries during Acceptance speech: 1-2
Sean Penn wins but does not mention Barack Obama: 2.25-1
Any Actor or Actress uses the F-bomb in speech: 8-1
Barack Obama presents an Oscar: 25-1
Streaker interrupts ceremony: 33-1
Hugh Jackman and Russell Crowe get into a fight: 66-1
Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie both win Oscars: 125-1
Whoopi Goldberg throws shoe at Hugh Jackman: 200-1

Tom Tangney on KIRO Radio

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